EGYPT,
a country unaccustomed to tolerating political opposition, could be getting
ready for a change finally. Nobel Laureate and former Chief of the IAEA, Dr.
Mohammad ElBaradei, who is the most well known Egyptian internationally in
contemporary times, was given a rousing welcome when he arrived in Cairo
recently; a reception that was motivated by politics as many Egyptians are
beginning to see him as their man of destiny. He is viewed as one who could
transform Egypt into a working democracy based no doubt upon his fame for
winning the Nobel Peace Prize and handling the crisis in Iraq over presence of
WMD as Chief of IAEA and his impeccable record on corruption, a rare commodity
in the politics of Egypt.
Egypt saw the
downfall of monarchy when King Farook was quietly sent on exile by a group of
army officers led by Lieutenant General Mohammed Najeeb in 1952. However, the
real power behind the move by the disaffected army officers called the “free
officers” was Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser who set aside General Najeeb and assumed
power. Initially Egyptians were unsure about him but his stars rose
dramatically when he nationalized the Suez Canal in
1956. It helped him ride the wave of popularity not in just Egypt
but also in the Arab world for placating pan-Arabism and Arab socialism. Nasser
ruled as arbitrarily as all Egyptian rulers in history but he had Vice
Presidents while he governed with Anwar Sadat, the last of his many Vice
Presidents. As President, Anwar Sadat took General Hosne Mubarak as Vice
President who became President when he was assassinated in 1981.
Nasser's sudden death and Sadat's sudden assassination
did not create any problem in succession as a Vice president was already in
place who was in due course elected President through Egypt's
system of referendum. Already 81, in failing health and the next presidential
election due next year, the issue of transition from Mubarak has emerged as a
major political issue in Egypt's
politics because Mubarak has ruthlessly subordinated the opposition and did not
take a Vice President. He has not overtly groomed any successor but gave enough
power and influence to the younger of his two sons Gamal Mubarak not to leave
much doubt in the public mind that he wanted him to “inherit” the Presidency.
In fact, the father has more than ensured the son the Presidency because of his
absolute control over the military and the intelligence that virtually control
and rule Arab world's most populous nation. Perhaps with this succession by
“inheritance” in mind, President Mubarak never took a Vice-President. However,
where all the past Presidents, including Mubarak, have been from the military,
Gamal Mubarak is a civilian. With President Mubarak still in firm control,
there seems to be no one else in the wings to contest Gamal's claim but that
situation could change dramatically if anything happens to the President
between now and the election.
Egypt is the
hub of politics in the Middle East. Its history and
geopolitical location gives it a place of pre-eminence not just in regional
affairs but also in international politics. In a region that is a hotbed of
crisis of all sorts, the United States
and its allies have always sought Egypt's
assistance to seek their resolution. The United
States provides Egypt
with the largest quantum of assistance that totalled US$ 28 billion between
1975 and 2005. Unfortunately, while the United
States has gone to Iraq
and other places of the world to bring about democracy, in Egypt
it has backed Hosne Mubarak to the tilt although his rule has been anything but
democratic. Mubarak was re-elected in 1987, 1993 and 1999 through referendum.
In 2005, after a change in the constitution that allowed parties to directly
contest an incumbent President, Mubarak was again re-elected by a massive
majority but the result has been contested both at home and abroad on issue of
fairness. Mubarak has thus ruled by force of military and intelligence backed
power rather than with the people behind him. He also lacked the charisma of
his predecessors, particularly Nasser, and did not enjoy the popularity to
support his long hold on power. He has thus not been able to play a role in
international politics as effectively as a popularly backed Egyptian leader
could have.
Dr. ElBaradei has thus landed in Cairo
in the backdrop of an interesting and exciting political scenario. Dr.
ElBaradei who retired from his IAEA position after 12 years in November last
year remained abroad from where he gave interviews to the media indicating his
intention to contest the next Presidential election but subject to a few
conditions. The wide range of people who greeted Dr. ElBaradei at Cairo
airport is revealing. It did not just included people with known opposition
links; there were people from all regions and walks of life, many with no
political links, who came to show their support for someone they thought had
the potentials to change Egypt's
political system known to be inefficient and corrupt. An independent group
called “ElBaradei for Presidency” that has 65,000 members on Facebook has
already started campaigning actively and they claim representation in all the
cities across Egypt.
Some people are also wary whether a former diplomat who has lived most of his
life abroad and out of touch with Egypt's
politics would be able to lead Egypt
if he wins the presidency. However, more serious issues must first be resolved
before going to that stage. For one, whether Dr. ElBaradei would be allowed by
an authoritarian regime determined in favour of the incumbent President's son
to contest the election is yet to be settled because he does not fulfil the
requirement of heading a political party for at least a year to become a
candidate. Then there is the military and intelligence who would like their
candidate to win and win handsomely and they have many a trick up their
sleeves. Dr. ElBaradei has also set conditions like assurance of a free and
fair election, independent judicial review, international oversight, and equal
opportunity for media coverage. These are big issues and President Mubarak
could agree to meet these conditions only by putting his son's succession in
jeopardy. In his negotiations with Iran
as IAEA Chief, the US
thought he was soft on Iran
and that could become an issue against him as Egyptians are not known to be
pro-Iran.
However, all the above factors notwithstanding, Egyptians are agog with the
prospect of a change from the absolute rule that Dr. Elbaradei's candidature
has caused across a wide spectrum of reglious, regional and other issues that
divide Egyptians. President Mubarak will not find it easy to hand over power to
his son; that in itself is a victory for democracy. In Egypt's
stereo-typed politics Dr. Elbardei's entry, even if it is not successful, has
injected a breath of fresh air and an element of hope for change.
The Author is the Director,
Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies and Former Ambassador to Japan.
